LIFE AFTER PIOLI

The Patriots have lost another top evaluator. First Offensive Coordinator Josh McDaniels bolted to take the reigns of the Denver Broncos, and now VP of Player Personnel Scott Pioli is moving west to take over as GM for the Kansas City Chiefs.

It will be very interesting how the Patriots respond. Pioli is obviously one of the top executives in all of football, and his loss is a huge one for a franchise that has been so successful in the new millennium. The Patriots have already named his successor in Pioli's former assistant, Nick Caserio.

In his column on Caserio in today's Boston Globe, beat writer Mike Reiss (friend of the blog) says that the Pats were right to name an in-house replacement because of how closely Bill Belichick works with the front office. Knowing exactly what kind of player the coach likes will save Caserio tons of time and should help the Pats remain one of the better teams in the AFC for years to come. Caserio is a system guy who has worked both on the field--as an offensive coaching assistant and wide receivers coach--and in the front office. He's an extremely hard worker and should fit right in in his new role.

And as long as Belichick is in charge of the team, the Patriots will be just fine.

IS NFL OVERTIME WORTH FIXING?

Going into their playoff matchup last week, most people expected the Indianapolis Colts, winners of nine straight, to roll over 8-8 San Diego. The Chargers had other ideas however, and behind running back Darren Sproles' spectacular effort, had the game knotted at 17 as the fourth quarter clock ticked down to 0:00. San Diego won the coin toss and never gave up the ball, eventually winning on Sproles' 22-yard scamper some three and a half minutes into the extra frame. So Indianapolis, who breezed through the second half of the season, was eliminated after picking incorrectly on the most basic question: heads or tails? While the simple answer is to play better defense, it's not always that easy. There is something that is just unfair about overtime in the NFL and that needs to be fixed.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, 44% of the overtime games since 2006 have been won on the first drive by the team that won the coin toss. All in all, 64% of OT games have been won by the team that gets the ball first. That's a really startling statistic, suggesting that NFL overtime, in it's current incarnation, really isn't fair for both teams. So, can anything be done to even the playing field? I don't think the College Football OT rules would translate well in the professional ranks. Another idea, as suggested by ESPN.com's Bill Simmons, says a team should essentially be able to match a field goal with a possession of their own. But this one comes across as confusing and gimmicky, something the NFL doesn't want or need.

One interesting suggestion is to leave overtime in the regular season alone, but change it in the playoffs to one full quarter of action. The coin toss would still determine which club would get the ball first, but the first possession wouldn't determine the outcome. It would be similar to the system used in the NHL, where five minutes of overtime (and, if necessary, a shootout) are played in the regular season, but the playoffs see continuous action until a team wins. Of course, now the football OT wouldn't be sudden death, but it would mean the outcomes would be decided by the players 100% of the time.

The Colts, of course, are still sitting at home watching the playoffs on TV (for the record, I'm happy about that). With any luck though, teams in that situation in the future will at least get a shot of their own. And who knows? Maybe Bill Polian will demand changes...again.


**For the record it was my dad that came up with the new playoff OT idea. Thanks Pops.

EVAN'S WEEK 17 PICKS

Time to make up some ground.

St. Louis vs. Atlanta (-11)
New England vs. Buffalo (+6)
Kansas City vs. Cincinnati (E)
Detroit vs. Green Bay (-6.5)
Tennessee vs. Indianapolis (-1.5)
NY Giants vs. Minnesota (+1)
Carolina vs. New Orleans (E)
Cleveland vs. Pittsburgh (-8)
Oakland vs. Tampa Bay (-5)
Chicago vs. Houston (+3.5)
Washington vs. San Francisco (-1)
Jacksonville vs. Baltimore (-7)
Miami vs. NY Jets (+1)
Dallas vs. Philadelphia (-2)
Seattle vs. Arizona (-5.5)
Denver vs. San Diego (-6)

THE GOODELL THAT STOLE CHRISTMAS...

I'm pretty sure Roger Goodell has lost his mind. The NFL commissioner, it seems, hands out fines for just about everything. Many of these fines are warranted. Many are not. Shaun Ellis of the Jets was fined $10,000 last week for throwing a big chunk of snow at a fan. That may not sound like much, but I can understand where the Commish is coming from. If a paying fan gets hurt unnecessarily, it can leave a black mark on the league, and Ellis was made an example of to further illustrate that point.

What I can't wrap my head around is the fines handed down to Ben Watson and Wes Welker of the Patriots in the past couple of weeks. Three weeks ago in Seattle, Watson stuffed the ball into his jersey after a score to honor his wife Kirsten, who is expecting the couple's first child on February 1. He was subsequently penalized fifteen yards for unsportsmanlike conduct and slapped with a $10,000 fee. Welker dropped to the snowy ground last week after a touchdown grab and made a snow angel ala Lonnie Paxton after Adam Vinatieri's game winning kick in Super Bowl XXXVI. Same penalty, same fine.

So let me get this straight. Putting the ball in your shirt: 15-yard penalty, big fine. Making a snow angel: 15-yard penalty, big fine. Spearing yourself head first at a player who is slowing down as the play is ending (yes, I'm talking to you, Ryan Clark): 15-yard penalty...that's it? That's one hell of a precedent Roger Goodell is setting.

Goodell seems to be doing a tremendous impression of the Grinch this holiday season. Except at the end of all of this, the only lesson that anybody will have learned is not to mess with the No Fun League.

Q AND A WITH MIKE REISS OF THE GLOBE: PART II

With just one week left in the regular season, and the Patriots currently on the outside looking in, Mike Reiss of the Boston Globe joins us once again to discuss the club's chances this season, and what we might see from them in the future.

Saturday Morning Sports: Given all the injuries the Patriots have had, and with Bill Belichick's history (spygate), and the job Tony Sparano has done in Miami this year, do you think Belichick will get any votes for coach of the year?
Mike Reiss: I do think Bill Belichick will get some votes, but I don't think he'll get enough to earn the honor. There are too many other candidates, from Tony Sparano, to Mike Smith, to John Harbaugh, to Jeff Fisher. But you listen to people around the NFL and they tip their cap to the job that Belichick has done this year.

SMS: Is Tedy Bruschi done for the season? Is his career in jeopardy?
MR: Bruschi has yet to be placed on season-ending injured reserve, so the door is not closed on his potential return, but it's a longer shot. The knee injury itself isn't a career-ender, but given where Bruschi is at this point of his career, it's something that must be kept in mind.

SMS: Do you think the Patriots will re-sign Matt Cassel in the offseason?
MR: I don't see Cassel re-signing with the Patriots. There is the possibility of the franchise tag being assigned, and then Cassel being traded. Otherwise, it would be that rare situation where a quarterback in his prime years, who led the team to a winning season, hits the open market. If the Patriots lose Cassel, they would likely receive the highest possible compensatory draft choice in 2010 -- the year after he departs -- which is a third-rounder.

SMS: Who would you say is the Patriots MVP so far this year?
MR: My choice would go to receiver Wes Welker. He leads the NFL in yards after the catch and I thought his presence in the short passing game helped the offense stay afloat until Matt Cassel got more comfortable throwing the long ball. His consistency has also been most impressive.

SMS: Do you think the Patriots playing in London will hurt them at all next season?
MR: I don't see that experience hurting the Patriots from a travel perspective. The only thing that comes to mind is that some players have voiced concerns over the playing surface in past years, but that was supposedly improved this year.

SMS: Any predictions for the Pats playoff chances?
MR: I think the Patriots will beat the Bills on Sunday, so it will come down to the Ravens-Jaguars and Jets-Dolphins. I don't see the Ravens losing, which would rule out the wild-card. I could see the Jets winning, though, which would open the door. I don't have any strong prediction at this time, though.

LIGHT AND CROWDER FINED, NOT SUSPENDED

Great news for the Patriots, as Matt Light will be in uniform on Sunday when New England takes on AFC rival Pittsburgh at Gillette Stadium. Light and Channing Crowder of the Miami Dolphins got into a fight during the Pats win last week, and both were ejected from the game.

The NFL elected to fine each player $15,000, but did not issue suspensions for either player. The confrontation occurred in the fourth quarter, while Light was blocking Crowder during Stephen Gostkowski's 30-yard field goal. The NFL's investigation found that while Light did punch Crowder multiple times, Crowder instigated the fight by constantly trash talking (hence the grin as he ran away from Light).

Having Light in the lineup will be huge next week against the Steelers, the NFL leaders in sacks.

TIME FOR JOEY PORTER TO JUST SHUT UP

Finally. The Patriots shut up Joey Porter. The Dolphins linebacker and NFL sack leader loves to run his mouth, and has no love lost for New England, or head coach Bill Belichick for that matter. In an interview with Keyshawn Johnson on ESPN's Sunday NFL Countdown, Porter says that he thinks the Patriots were cheating in all of the playoff games that he faced them in as a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers. "Two times we could have blown those people out easily" said Porter. "Man, that's my dyansty, know what I mean?"

No, Joey. We don't know what you mean. Your insane psycho babble just needs to stop. Of course, Porter talked a big game before Miami came to New England in week three, but that time he backed it up. The Dolphins rocked New England on September 21, 38-13 in front of a very unhappy crowd at Gillette Stadium.

Today, Porter and the Dolphins had no such luck. After a closely contested first half, the Pats blew the doors off, crushing Miami and putting up 48 points on Porter's defense.
Matt Cassel was spectacular again, as he became the first Patriots quarterback to throw for 400 yards in back to back games. Cassel finished the day 30/43 for 415 yards, three touchdowns and one unlucky interception. Randy Moss caught all three of those TD passes, picking up 125 yards on the afternoon.

Porter drew the ire of the referees late in the game with an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty that gave New England the ball inside the Dolphins 20. While the penalty didn't mean much (the game was pretty much over at that point), it was a fitting end to this one.

Now that Cassel and the Pats have beaten Miami, hopefully Porter will just stop talking. Unfortunately for everybody though, he probably won't. And we'll all have to roll our eyes again at something crazy that Joey Porter has said.

EVAN'S WEEK 11 PICKS

Denver at Atlanta (-2.5)
Philadelphia at Cincinnati (+7)
Chicago at Green Bay (E)
Houston at Indianapolis (-10.5)
New Orleans at Kansas City (+5)
Oakland at Miami (-8)
Baltimore at NY Giants (-5.5)
Minnesota at Tampa Bay (-1)
Detroit at Carolina (-12)
St. Louis at San Francisco (-3.5)
Arizona at Seattle (+6.5)
Tennessee at Jacksonville (+7)
San Diego at Pittsburgh (-4)
Dallas at Washington (E)
Cleveland at Buffalo (-2.5)

EVAN'S WEEK 10 PICKS

The Broncos beat the Browns 34-30 last night. Oops, forgot to pick that one. Here are the rest of the games on the week 10 slate. My picks are in bold.

Buffalo at New England (-1)
New Orleans at Atlanta (-2)
Tennessee at Chicago (+2)
Jacksonville at Detroit (+3.5)
Seattle at Miami (-7)
Green Bay at Minnesota (-1.5)
St. Louis at New York Jets (-7)
Baltimore at Houston (+1)
Carolina at Oakland (+9)
Indianapolis at Pittsburgh (-6)
Kansas City at San Diego (-4.5)
New York Giants at Philadelphia (+2)
San Francisco at Arizona (-9)

7-7 Last Week

53-58-2 This Season

8 Games Back of Mark

MARK'S WEEK 9 PICKS

(Home teams in caps)

BUFFALO -3
Detroit +8.5
Jacksonville -4
Baltimore E
Green Bay +1.5
KANSAS CITY +6.5
ST. LOUIS -3.5
MINNESOTA E
DENVER -1
Atlanta -4
NEW YORK GIANTS -8
Philadelphia -5
INDIANAPOLIS -1
Pittsburgh E

Last week: 8-5-1
Season: 52-45-2

Q AND A WITH MIKE REISS OF THE GLOBE

Mike Reiss is the Patriots beat writer for the Boston Globe. His Reiss' Pieces blog on the Globe's website gives a behind the scenes look at the daily happenings of the team. Reiss answered a few questions for us at Saturday Morning Sports via e-mail. Here are his responses:

Saturday Morning Sports: What exactly is wrong with Sammy Morris? How long do you think he'll be out for?
Mike Reiss: I saw Sammy Morris on Tuesday and he still looked to be in pain from his knee injury. He said he hurt the knee on his final carry, a 29-yarder, against the Broncos at the end of the second quarter.

SMS: When do you see LaMont Jordan coming back?
MR: I think Jordan will be playing this Sunday night against the Colts. He's missed the last three games with the right quad injury, but barring a setback, I think we'll see him this week.

SMS: Is Laurence Maroney done with the Pats for good?
MR: I don't think so. He has two years left on his contract (through 2010), so I think the way the Patriots will approach it is by building depth around him and not expecting much of him -- and whatever they get would be a bonus.

SMS: Do you think Rodney Harrison's career is finished?
MR: I do. Watching Harrison leave the field on a cart, I sensed it as a final moment in which he was soaking it all in. I'd never count Harrison out, and he hasn't said anything yet, but my hunch is that he won't be playing again.

SMS: Do you think, in light of their recent injuries/struggles in the secondary, the Pats will look to add someone like John Lynch?
MR: I thought Lynch would be back, but unless there is another injury, I'm now leaning against the possibility. It seems the Patriots aren't as sold on him as I thought they were.

NFL PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS BY MARK

I can't let Evan outdo me on the horrible picks this year. I definitely have as poor a judgment at picking NFL games as he does - in high school I had a short stint gambling against spreads, and I was so bad at it that I started picking the opposite of my instincts (George Costanza style) and it actually worked most of the time.

I was with Evan all the way on the Raiders 0-16, and have been meaning to bring up the possibility of it happening for either the Bengals or the Lions as well (you're welcome Bengals/Lions fans). I also famously predicted the Packers to go to the Super Bowl after week 2, and briefly thought of bringing up on the show whether or not the Cowboys would go 16-0.

With that being said, here are my predictions for the 2008 NFL playoffs. I decided to go Moneyball style and will include point differentials in addition to record.

AFC PLAYOFF SEEDS (CURRENT RECORD/PT. DIFFERENTIAL)
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-1 / +52) AFC North Champions
2. Tennessee Titans (6-0 / +83) AFC South Champions
3. Buffalo Bills (5-1 / +31) AFC East Champions
4. San Diego Chargers (3-4 / +30) AFC West Champions
5. Denver Broncos (4-3 / -30) Wild Card
6. New England Patriots (4-2 / +13) Wild Card

The matchups and predicted winners:
Bills 20 Patriots 9
Chargers 38 Broncos 21

Steelers 17 Chargers 13
Titans 22 Bills 6

Steelers 13 Titans 10

NFC PLAYOFF SEEDS (CURRENT RECORD/PT. DIFFERENTIAL)
1. New York Giants (5-1 / +69) NFC East Champions
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (5-2 / +54) NFC South Champions
3. Green Bay Packers (4-3 / +35 ) NFC North Champions
4. Arizona Cardinals (4-2 / +33) NFC West Champions
5. Chicago Bears (4-3 / +46) Wild Card
6. Carolina Panthers (5-2 / +43) Wild Card

The matchups and predicted winners:
Packers 29 Panthers 17
Bears 27 Cardinals 17

Giants 16 Bears 3
Packers 24 Buccaneers 10

Packers 17 Giants 14

SUPER BOWL XLIII

Green Bay Packers 27
Pittsburgh Steelers 21

Sorry, Packers fans! I'm still picking your team to win the Super Bowl. What struck me most was how ridiculously hard it was to pick playoff teams in the NFC. Did you notice the Giants were the only team I picked from the East? Experts think all four of those teams are playoff contenders! I think the most likely scenario is the Redskins/Eagles/Cowboys beating each other up while the Bears and Panthers sneak into the wild card spots. Can't wait to see how these picks turn out, Evan! May the worst predictions win.

NFL PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS BY EVAN

Former Indianapolis head coach Jim Mora has apparently been coaching me on making my picks.
Here are a few quick predictions about the rest of the NFL season. Keep in mind, pretty much everything that I predict is completely and utterly wrong. On an earlier episode of Saturday Morning Sports, Mark and I wondered aloud if the Raiders had the chance to go 0-16. They rocked Kansas City 23-8 the very next day.

I picked the Jets to beat the Pats (wrong), the Pats to beat the Dolphins (nope), the Pats over the Chargers (oops), and the Broncos winning in New England (wow). So keep my history, and poor coach Mora, in mind when I am wrong on every one of these picks.

AFC PLAYOFF SEEDS (current record)
1. Tennessee Titans (6-0) AFC South Champions
2. Buffalo Bills (5-1) AFC East Champions
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (5-1) AFC North Champions
4. San Diego Chargers (3-4) AFC West Champions
5. Indianapolis Colts (3-3) Wild Card
6. New England Patriots (4-2) Wild Card

The matchups, and predicted winners:
Steelers 20 Patriots 13
Colts 27 Chargers 17

Titans 24 Colts 21
Bills 27 Steelers 14

Titans 27 Bills 24

NFC PLAYOFF SEEDS (current record)
1. Giants (5-1) NFC East Champions
2. Tampa Bay (5-2) NFC South Champions
3. Green Bay Packers (4-3) NFC North Champions
4. Arizona Cardinals (4-2) NFC West Champions *A Pop Warner team could win this division easily
5. Dallas Cowboys (4-3) Wild Card
6. Washington Redskins (5-2) Wild Card

The matchups and predicted winners:
Packers 24 Redskins 17
Cowboys 31 Cardinals 27

Giants 24 Cowboys 13
Buccaneers 31 Packers 24

Buccaneers 24 Giants 21

SUPER BOWL XLIII

Tampa Bay Bucaneers 27 Tennessee Titans 16

Honestly, I would have picked the Titans if not for the fact that the Super Bowl is being played in Tampa Bay at Raymond James Stadium. I think it'll be hilarious how wrong some of these predictions are, but for now we'll just have to wait and see.

BRADY UNDERGOES SECOND KNEE SURGERY

New England Patriots starting quarterback Tom Brady had a second surgery on his left knee on Wednesday to clear out an infection. Brady, who tore his ACL and MCL when he was hit by Kansas City Chiefs safety Bernard Pollard in the first quarter of week one, had the first procedure done on October 6.

Hopefully, this won't hold Brady out for any additional time. While he is already on Injured Reserve, and thus done for the season, any further problems with the knee could delay his return into next season. That would be disastrous as the Pats, a team that scored an NFL record 589 points one season ago are really struggling to move the ball with backup Matt Cassel under center. New England is averaging only 17.8 points per game, down over 50% from last year's prolific offense that scored nearly 37 points per contest.

Despite the second surgery, Brady is expected to be ready for training camp for the 2009 NFL season. Hopefully we'll see the old Tom Brady next September.

TROY BROWN: A CLASS ACT ALL THE WAY

On September 25, former Patriots wide receiver/defensive back Troy Brown officially announced his retirement from the NFL. Brown, who hadn't been a full-time player since 2006, played wide receiver for the Pats from 1994-2007, and came through late in his career as a nickel back when the New England defense was hurting. With the Red Sox pushing for another World Series, and the Patriots trying to stay afloat without Tom Brady, we never got a chance on the show to talk about Brown's farewell.

Troy Brown was one of the Patriots all-time greats. An eighth round pick from Marshall University in 1993 (198th overall), Brown caught 557 passes in his career, for 6,366 yards and 31 receiving touchdowns. He was a Pro Bowl selection in 2001, played in four Super Bowls (winning three of them), and was one of the most dangerous punt returners in the NFL for quite some time.

Brown's versatility made him a rare commodity in today's National Football League. He was naturally a wide receiver and return man, but played admirably on defense when injuries forced him into the situation. He picked off three passes in 2004, putting him second on the team behind only safety Eugene Wilson, who picked off four. He was even listed as the fourth string quarterback in 2006. When asked why he had put Brown as the fourth signal caller on the roster, coach Bill Belichick said "to develop his legend." Mission accomplished.

I will have two lasting memories of Troy Brown. The first was in the 2001 season (2002 playoffs), when Brown dashed straight up the middle in Pittsburgh, returning a punt 55 yards for a touchdown to open the scoring, nine minutes into the first quarter of the AFC Championship game. The Pats went on to win that game by seven points and advance to Super Bowl XXXVI, where they stunned the "Greatest Show on Turf" St. Louis Rams 20-17.

The other was his amazing strip of Chargers defensive back Marlon McCree in a 2006 playoff game in San Diego. With New England trailing 21-13 in the fourth quarter, the Patriots drove to the Chargers 41 yard line. On fourth down, Tom Brady was picked off by McCree, who was stripped by Brown while trying to return the pick. Reche Caldwell recovered the fumble, and the Patriots went on to score the touchdown and game tying two-point conversion, and eventually won the game on Stephen Gostkowski's 31-yard field goal with just 1:10 remaining.

Troy Brown retired as the Patriots all-time leader in punt returns (252) and punt return yards (2,625). He his first in team history in receptions (557), and is second to only Stanley Morgan in receiving yards (Brown had 6,336, Morgan had 10, 352).

Brown never got into trouble off the field, and was always a consummate professional on it. Troy Brown was a class act for his entire career. He was both the ultimate team player and a game-changer, one that could turn the momentum of any game with a long punt return or touchdown grab. Troy Brown was a huge part of the Patriots success, and there will never be another quite like him.

FORMER LIONS WR WILLIAMS DEALT TO DALLAS

You're welcome Cowboys fans. After last week's Saturday Morning Sports Week 6 Trade Deadline Spectacular, Detroit shipped wide out Roy Williams to the Cowboys in exchange for a first round pick, a third round pick, and a sixth round selection in the 2009 draft.

Williams was unhappy in Detroit, and became expendable with the emergence of last year's first round pick, wide receiver Calvin Johnson. Johnson has caught 23 passes so far this season for 377 yards and three touchdowns for the 0-5 Lions.

The deal bolsters Dallas' receiving corps, already a strength of the defending NFC East champs. With Terrell Owens, Patrick Crayton, and tight end Jason Witten already getting the majority of Tony Romo's throws, it could be difficult find enough passes for Williams, especially considering TO's willingness to complain about not receiving enough touches at the drop of a hat.

Of course, Cowboys fans will have to wait to see what kind of chemistry Romo and Williams will have. Dallas' starting quarterback is out up to four weeks with a broken pinkie finger on his throwing hand, suffered in Sunday's overtime loss in Arizona.

In the only other trade deadline move, Buffalo sent defensive tackle John McCargo to Indianapolis in exchange for an undisclosed draft pick. McCargo, who the Bills used a 2006 first round pick on (26th overall) , struggled to move up the depth chart in Buffalo. The Bills are leading the AFC East with a 4-1 record.

CASSEL STRUGGLES AGAIN: ARE THERE BETTER OPTIONS?

Coming off a well played 30-21 victory in San Francisco last week, Matt Cassel and the Patriots headed to San Diego on Sunday night to take on the Chargers. In only his fourth start since high school, Cassel's inexperience was evident early and often.

Cassel's numbers in the 30-10 beat down by the Chargers were not all that bad. He was 22 for 38, threw for 203 yards, no touchdowns and one interception. But mediocre numbers aside, Cassel looked way more lost in this one than he had in any of his other starts (save for maybe the drubbing at the hands of Miami). He appeared to lock on to a receiver, and if that first option wasn't there, tuck the ball down and try and get a yard or two. Most times he ended up on his back, behind the line of scrimmage. On fourth and goal from the Chargers' one yard line, Cassel had tight end Benjamin Watson open in the end zone. When his first option was well covered, Cassel tried to scramble out, but the San Diego rush prevented him from getting the score. If the Patriots hope to even make the playoffs this year, either Cassel will need to step up, or they will have to explore other options.

Chris Simms was available at the outset of the season, but he has since signed with the Tennessee Titans. Tim Rattay is available, with a career passer rating of 81.9. As is former Jaguars backup Quinn Gray. Another option for the Pats is third round pick Kevin O'Connell. O'Connell is backing up Cassel now, and if the starter's struggles continue, it wouldn't surprise me to see Belichick turn to the rookie. Either way, it would be a good way to get him some experience so he can serve as a capable backup to Tom Brady in the coming years.

Whatever the Patriots decide to do, they should do it soon. If Matt Cassel continues to lead the team the way he did this week, it is going to be a long season in Foxborough.