It was announced today that Tampa Bay Rays manager Joe Maddon decided to swap his scheduled starting pitchers for games 5 and 6 of the American League Championship series - going with Scott Kazmir in game 5 and moving James Shields back to game 6 (if necessary).
The logic behind the move is that Shields is "very good" at home. Revealed later was that the switch also prevents Kazmir from pitching with umpire Daryl Cousins behind the plate. Kazmir and Cousins exchanged angry quotes about one another following a game on June 11, when Kazmir was extremely dissatisfied with the strike zone Cousins was calling.
To me, this move is very puzzling. Kazmir has been terrible so far in the playoffs (and at the end of the regular season). Here are his two playoff starts:
10/3 (CWS, W) 5.1 IP, 8 H, 2 ER, 4 K, 2 BB, 98 pitches
10/11 (BOS, ND) 4.1 IP, 6 H, 5 ER, 3 HR, 2 K, 3 BB, 98 pitches, (1-13 ground ball to fly ball ratio!)
In his past two starts against the Red Sox, Kazmir has allowed 14 earned runs and seven home runs. Clearly, he is the weak link on what has been a dominating Rays staff. So why move him up a game when you have a chance to end the series? Even if Maddon thinks that moving Shields back home to face Beckett all but ensures a game six victory, why even throw the Red Sox a bone when they are desperately grasping for one? The Sox are in need of any glimmer of hope or momentum they can get at this point, so why give it to them?
Maddon is right about one thing: Shields' home numbers are significantly better than his road stats. But the Rays are about as hot as a team can possibly be at this point, why shake things up?
Of course, this will all be moot unless Dice-K gives us another spectacular performance in game 5.
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